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USDA Lowers Milk Production Expectations, 2019 All Milk Price

The USDA is continuing to lower its milk production forecast for this year because of slower than expected milk per cow growth and lower cow numbers.  The agency also forecasts numbers to remain low in 2020 with higher feed costs and weaker margins expected.

In its June supply and demand report, USDA forecast 2019 cheese and whey prices lower while increasing nonfat dry milk and butter prices.  Butter and cheese price forecasts for 2020 were raised, nonfat dry milk left unchanged and whey prices were slightly lowered.

Class III prices were lowered on reduced cheese and whey prices while the Class IV price was increased by higher butter and nonfat dry milk prices.

The 2019 all milk price declined by a nickel to $18 and increased to $18.20 for 2020.  

Exports on a fat basis were reduced for 2019 as gains in cheese exports to Mexico only partially offset lower butterfat exports, 2020 exports were unchanged. Skim-solids basis exports were also lowered.

--Brownfield AgNews