By E. W.
Lang
I have little in the way of good mews to share
following this last week of ag and equity trade, as markets are generally
sobering for town and country folk alike.
I'll just deliver some generalities.
Block cheese lost a little, barrels lost a little more and butter lost a
lot. Class III Futures for the rest of
this year and all of next lost one to 37 cents per cwt.
Based on USDA ag prices for June, the Dairy
Margin Coverage milk-feed margin should be about $8.63 per cwt. Farmers electing and paying for the $9.50
coverage should clear 70 or so cents per cwt
in government milk subsidies for their covered base production.
During June we,the USA, exported less than 14% of
our milk solids to foreign countries.
For reference, in early 2018 we exported over 18% of our milik
solids. In 2014 we shipped out about 25%
and in 2000 we shipped out some amount in the single digits.
Out on the cash grain farm, corn lost about 20
cents per bushel this week while soybean meal lost $11 per ton. Milk feed indicies remain at historically
high levels, however. They are almost
$10 per cwt. in September, something over $9.50 for the rest of this year, and
an average of $8.75 for all of year next.
The ten year average for that index is $7.73 per cwt. Corn and bean farmers aren't looking at
margins like that right now, and auctioneers got some phone calls this
week.
In the dairy cattle auction ring, today's video
sale at Turlock saw Holstein fresh cows, sold by the pot, topping at $1725 and
Jersey fresh cows topping at $1750 per head.
That's about $75 more than a month ago.
Premier in Withee, Wisconsin, reports similar increases in cow
price.
A lot of this week's loss in ag commodity values
stem from the recent, new tariff announcement on Red China imports from the
U.S. Equities on Wall Street lost ground
this week as well, largely for the same reason. There's a chart below that reviews movement
in the United State's and China's economies over the last three years. It includes the movement oin price of an ag
commodity fund that has drifted lower over the same time period.
______________________________
The author identifies as a farmer near Brooklyn,
Iowa