By E. W. Lang
Barrel cheese price on the CME has reached its highest level since
November, 2014, closing out the week at $2.02 per lb. Blocks closed at
$2.10, whilst butter lost nine cents this week and closed at $2.10 per lb.,
after gaining four cents today.
Class III Milk Futures currently average
$18.41 per cwt. for the rest of this year and $17.10 for all of next, all
following a general upward trend for the week.
Corn and Soy values increased some this week, precipitating a
modest loss in the Milk-Feed Index for the rest of this year. The MF Index is currently running ten and
four bits, and a short $9.00 for all of next year.
Reports late Friday state that pork and soybean
producers stand to benefit from a "Phase 1" trade package with
the Mainland.
According to the New York Times, "If
completed, the agreement would provide relief to American farmers and
businesses that have been battered by the trade war. Mr. Trump said the
“substantial” agreement would involve China buying $40 billion to $50 billion
worth of American agricultural products annually, along with guidelines on how
it manages its currency, the renminbi.
"It would also strengthen Chinese
protections for American intellectual property and give financial services
companies more access to China’s market, the president said.
"In exchange, the United States will not
move ahead next week with plans to raise tariffs on $250 billion worth of
Chinese goods to 30 percent. The president has not made a final decision on
whether to impose an additional round of tariffs on Dec. 15, as he has
threatened.
PRC Pork has been in short supply due to their
pigs getting African Swine Fever, then being euthanized. Bear in mind that this is a general agreement
with nothing signed on paper. It may be that markets will adopt a wait and see
attitude, given minimal or no actual trade developments following previous
deals.
A couple months of higher milk margins has led to
almost no increase in bred heifer and fresh cow value. Last week's video sale
from Turlock, Calif., saw tops among fresh Holsteins and Jerseys from $1500
to $1600 per head, off $50 from last month's Holstein top of $1650. Sales
were by trailer and pot groups.
Gold Standard market reporting by Dairy Herd
Management corroborates stagnant replacement price information, adding that the
monthly dairy sale in Sulphur Springs, Tex., has stuck the gavel for the last
time.
https://www.dairyherd.com/…/springer-prices-stagnant-dairy-…
To every thing there is a season. Colfax, Iowa, had their last dairy sale in 1974
after the "beef shortage" when area farmers introduced Angus bulls to
their Holstein cows. Oskaloosa, Iowa, quit having dairy sales in the late 80s,
after the farm recession prompted many producers to sell out and take work in
town. Waverly, Iowa, had a 1500 head dairy sale in 1967 when all milk producers
had to go to bulk tanks from milk cans. Thirty years later, the last Waverly
Dairy Sale was after local corn went over $5 for a few months, and dairy
pastures and cow lots were plowed up for row crops.
The invisible hand, highest and best use of
capital, waves of creative destruction... google any phrase for sobering
insight on why there are fewer milk producers and ancillary services needed
with each passing decade. Also, you can find out why any person in the United
States can still go to any area at any time, and still be able to buy milk,
cheese and butter at quality, in quantity and at a stable price.
I'll be on announcements at the Pioneer Dairy
Classic in Lancaster, Wisconsin, on Saturdy. There are a couple DAT ads coming up this
week that will give additional Sale and Showmanship Clinic information.
I appreciate the many of you who offered wishes
and regards of one kind or another at the recent World Dairy Exposition. I'm
penciling notes for a recap "Letter from Madison," that I hope to be
insightful, reflective, resonant and amusing, though it may end up being just
caustic and abrasive. Dairy Agenda
Today readers are encouraged to suggest "Letter from Madison" topics
in the Comments Section below.
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E. W. Lang identifies as a farmer near Brooklyn,
Iowa