By E. W.
Lang
Most news is good news in the dairy trade this
week. Barrel cheese gained 14 cents over the seven days to close out at $1.19
per lb. Blocks, in turn, gained 13 to close at $1.20. Each was at $1.00 per lb.
on April 16. USDA Dairy Market News says that cheese sales are robust at retail
and showing signs of life in the food service sector.
Butter gained four cents this week at $1.19 per
lb., which is above the recent low of $1.10 on April 23. NFDM lost two at 79
cents per lb. Whey was up one cent at 39 cents per lb.
Class III Milk Futures for the next year run from
$11.26 per cwt. here in May, to $15.76 in November. Class IV runs from $10.02
in May to $14.57 in April, 2021.
USDA released the March feed and all milk prices.
It looks like the Dairy Margin Coverage for March will be $9.15 per cwt., so
herds signed up for $9.50 coverage will get 35 cents on their eligible base.
Right now the USDA DMC Decision tool estimates April's margin at $5.11 and
May's margin at $5.94 per cwt., so you do the math. It will add up for
producers who signed up for $9.50 coverage.
Dairy slaughter cows at Premier in Withee,
Wisconsin, were called steady with most selling from 38 to 47 cents per lb.
Holstein open heifers look like they were almost all well under $1 per lb.
Holstein heifers calves ranged from $20 to $70 and Holstein bull calves sold
from $70 to 130 per head.
Premier also had an organic dairy cow sale where
the tops ranged from $1700 to $2400 and an organic herd averaging over $1600 on
75 head. The non-organic cows and heifers sold for less with the better
Holstein bred heifers from $1000 to $1400 and Jerseys springers from $1150 to
$1400.
Hay in Dyersville was called mixed. Several loads
of large squares topped at $280. Large rounds topped at $195 per ton. Good
grass ran from $140 to $150 on both rounds and squares.
Two mostly tillable farms sold at auction in Iowa
this week. One was 129 acres, all tillable, at $7275 per acre. It was 83.3
CSR2, so it came to $94 per tillable point of CSR2. That would be on the low
end of what I've seen over the last six months. On the high end of recent
auctions was a 67 acre parcel at $12,250 per acre. It was $135 per tillable
CSR2 with a CSR2 of 95.9. Very little farm land is higher than 96.
China has recently acquired some good commodity
values in the United States, specifically corn, beans, cotton and sugar. They
have some U.S. oil fields and slaughter facilities purchased years ago. With 20
percent of the world's population, China was for many years an effective
counter weight for us against the old Soviet Union.
It's no secret that China now endeavors to be the
lone world superpower. A world in recession will present some opportunities to
advance their cause in light of low commodity values and loans in default, here
and elsewhere.
All things energy, except for natural gas, are
right at the bottom when you line up sectors from best performing to worst.
China's population, culture of population control, 3000 year recorded history
and wealth from a market economy all enable them to acquire cheap energy and
other assets, here and elsewhere, going forward. That would include ethanol, an
industry that's running at less than half capacity right now.
This is just a current musing, and isn't intended
as an indictment of the Chinese people or leadership. The United States have
had similar economic ambitions for 100 years. And 200 years before that, the
United Kingdom of Great Britain was just England.