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On Cows and Markets

By  E. W. Lang

At least one milk cooperative has told their producers that another USDA Covid subsidy will arrive on March 4.  This is intended to mitigate losses from negative Producer Price Differentials during and after the covid shut down.  The U.S. Treasury is delivering funds to milk processors and they, in turn, are to cash out their producers based on a cluster of things.  

Since PPDs are part of the equation, the subsidy will be greater to Florida producers than it will be to Wisconsin producers, for instance, because of Class I utilization.  I can hear the complaints already.  It's also several months late which just makes it worse.

March Class IV Milk Futures were just short of $25 per cwt. for a couple hours this week and April Futures were over $25 for a couple days.  Feb. to Dec. Class IV lost, on average, 43 cents per cwt. this week.  Feb. Mar. and April are $23.90 to $24.40 per cwt.  Butter lost six cents this week and is trading at $2.69 per lb.  Dry whey lost a cent and non-fat dry milk lost a nickel or so.

April Class III Futures ended the week at $22.81 per cwt. after spending much of the week well over $23.  Feb. to Dec. Class III averages lost 21 cents during the week.  Block cheese closed out trade at $1.99 per lb., up eight cents, and barrels gained two cents at $1.93 per lb.

Nearby corn went up three cents per bu., beans went over $16 per bushel and march soybean meal lost eight dollars per ton at $448.  People are talking $18 beans.  The milk-feed index averages near $10 for the rest of this year. 

Producers are booking herd dispersals while the booking is good.  There are three big ones out west that I know of.  And we seem to be seeing more than a seasonal uptick in public auctions from the Mississippi on east.  The February 4 Video Sale at Turlock, California saw fresh Jerseys average $1800 and fresh Holsteins average $2050 with three loads at $2150 per head.  Buyers included dairies in the upper midwest.  This week, top fresh cows at Premiere in Wisconsin were called lower at $1500 to $2100. 

Dairy cow slaughter for the week of Feb 5 was down 7% from a year ago.  Slaughter numbers for the year are down 6.4%.  This is, clearly, the result of higher milk prices.   

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